McCain, Obama economic policies appear to be politics as usual

From LA Times.com:

As Americans head to the polls, they carry their deep fears about the economy coupled with the weight of dire warnings about the potential economic fallout of an Obama or McCain presidency.

Democrat Sen. Barack Obama is accused of having a "socialist agenda," and Republican Sen. John McCain allegedly wants to further enrich "millionaires and billionaires." To listen to the campaigns, the risks for ordinary Americans are extraordinary.

The heated rhetoric is tapping into more than politics as usual. The election is occurring at a time of serious long- and short-term problems in the U.S. economy.

Ever since the late 1960s, incomes have been growing more unequal, leaving middle-class wage earners with a smaller share of the American pie while vast fortunes have been accumulated by a tiny few at the top.

The nation has just ended a long era of economic growth that left the median incomes of Americans lower in 2007 than in 1999, according to Census Bureau data. The impact was particularly hard at the lower end of the income scale.

7 Ways the Next President can Improve our Economy

It is no secret that the American economy is under pressure, and politicians are scrambling to present every solution possible. It does not help that all of this is happening in the middle of an already important presidential election. Since there are long and short term goals involved, many people are concerned with what the next president can do to fix the economy. To help my blog readers make their own educated decisions, I have brainstormed and put together the following list of ways the next president can fix the economy.

1. Reputation Repair

With the stock market going up one day and down the next, good foreign investor relations need to be kept intact. The money we are spending on the bailout plan does not all belong to us, and it does not all go to American companies. A lot of our economic security lies in the hands of foreign investments, and the next president should work to improve these relations. We need to show investors that we can and will manage our money and policy better than in the past.

2. Prioritize Agenda

With so many important items on the agency, it is hard not to get caught up in too many things at once. History has shown us that problems ignored usually get a lot worse, and end up at the top of the list eventually any ways. Prioritizing his agenda early can save the next president both time and money and focus on getting the job done right the first time.

3. Improve Congressional Relationships

The relationship between legislative and executive branches has been negative for too long. If we could make this relationship more open and less attacking perhaps they might come to more well rounded, honest decisions. It is hard to get any bill passed into law with an unhappy congress, so keeping the relationships friendly and professional will benefit the country as a whole.

4. Reduce Outsourcing

With the tough economy, more and more companies are looking to outsource their manufacturing. However, the problem is that doing so can make the economy even worse. While it may be cheaper for a company to outsource, it gives valuable jobs to other countries. If the government could give these companies some incentive to produce their goods at home it would create more American jobs, and benefit the whole economy.

5. New Energy Policies

While both candidates recognize the changing climate and the attention it needs, these are only words. The winner needs to come up with a clear and concise energy policy that addresses foreign oil dependency as well as all of our individual dependency on oil. Exploring, funding, and distributing alternative energy will save the country billions in the long run and can create “green collar” jobs in the meantime.

6. Promote Innovations

By funding and rewarding technological and medical innovation and discovery, we can increase our countries competitiveness in the global market. These new discoveries will provide a service to all Americans who benefits from them, and by developing ways to reduce our dependence on foreign oil we can stop sending so much of our money to foreign producers.

7. Market Regulation

By closely monitoring trading activity and spending, we can help prevent market manipulation and hopefully prevent another mess like the one we are in now. This is an issue that both candidates have addressed, as the image of corporate “fat cats” has angered the American public. Senator Barack Obama was quoted as saying, "the American economy does not stand still, and neither should the rules that govern it. Old institutions cannot adequately oversee new practices. Old rules may not fit the roads where our economy is leading."

Tax Related Inaccuracies Of The First Debate

Last Friday was the first of the presidential debates. Although the topic was supposed to be foreign policy, the financial crisis became a large topic in the debate.

When watching the debates, it can often be difficult to separate fact from fiction. Fortunately The Tax Foundation took the liberty to review the debate’s transcripts and identified “gaffes” made by both Senators Obama and McCain. I have posted their findings below.

Obama's Gaffes

First, Obama says this comparing his own tax plan to Sen. McCain's:

“And in his (Sen. McCain's) tax plan, you would have CEOs of Fortune 500 companies getting an average of $700,000 in reduced taxes, while leaving 100 million Americans out. So my attitude is, we've got to grow the economy from the bottom up. What I've called for is a tax cut for 95 percent of working families, 95 percent.”

Sen. Obama is mixing baselines here and the three figures aren't really comparable. First, the $700,000 in reduced taxes for CEOs comes from McCain's extending of the lower tax rates that those CEOs benefit from that were in place under the Bush tax cuts. So when Obama says that number, he is citing it relative to a baseline that assumed the Bush tax cuts were repealed. But when he talks about the "leaving 100 million Americans out" figure for McCain's tax plan, he is assuming that the Bush tax cuts are left in place with an AMT patch too (and he ignores McCain's health care tax credit and corporate income tax cut). When it comes to the 95 percent will get a tax cut under his plan, Obama includes the tax cuts that many relatively high-income (100k-300k) families would receive from an AMT patch, something he doesn't give McCain credit for in the 100 million figure, which only assumes McCain would increase the personal exemption.

Now this may seem like a technical and geeky point, but it's really not. Obama is basically comparing apples and oranges, and thereby misleading the American people. It's kind of like Obama telling you that the Georgia Bulldogs are 4-0 and the St. Louis Rams are 0-3 without telling you the fact that the Georgia Bulldogs play college football and the St. Louis Rams play professional football. He is implying that the two figures are comparable regarding the quality of the tax plans (football teams), but in reality, it is like comparing apples and oranges.

Obama also said this:

“[H]ere's what I can tell the American people: 95 percent of you will get a tax cut. And if you make less than $250,000, less than a quarter-million dollars a year, then you will not see one dime's worth of tax increase.”

That's not entirely true. According to Tax Policy Center, only 81.3 percent of tax units would receive a tax cut under Pres. Obama. The 95 percent of working families figure mentioned earlier in the debate is fairly accurate, but it's not 95 percent of the entire population. As for those making less than $250,000 not seeing a "dime's worth of tax increase," technically some households or tax units that benefit little from Obama's individual tax cuts could pay more due to Obama's closing of what he calls corporate tax loopholes, under the assumption that owners of capital would bear such a tax increase. This is not that significant a tax hike for those making under $250,000, but there are still some tax units or households making under $250,000 that could pay more in taxes under Obama's tax plan. Also, if you counted Obama's windfall profits tax and assumed that was borne in the short-run by owners of oil company stock, then some tax units that own a disproportionate amount of oil company stock either directly through stock ownership or indirectly through a pension fund could pay more in taxes, possibly exceeding the benefit that tax unit would receive from the energy "rebate" that Obama proposes to use the windfall profits tax money to fund.

McCain's Gaffes

Now McCain was also giving misleading information on taxes in the debate Friday night. The first instance was when he talked about his health insurance tax credit yet didn't bother to tell people that employer-provided health insurance benefits would be taxed. Obama was sure to point that out, and to his credit, he didn't say it was a massive tax hike like running mate Joe Biden has done on the campaign stump.

McCain also made this claim about his tax plan:

“I want to double the dividend from $3,500 to $7,000 for every dependent child in America.”

When McCain uses the term "dividend," he is referring to the personal exemption. It's unclear where that word dividend came from, and it's funny because he has made this error on multiple occasions throughout this campaign when he talks about this proposal publicly. (At least he didn't say credit as he has done in the past.) But that's not the issue here. McCain's claim is misleading because he never really doubles the personal exemption.

The current personal exemption in 2008 for a dependent is $3,500. McCain's plan calls for making it $7,000 by 2016 (eight years down the road). But even if McCain left it alone, the personal exemption would likely be near $4,600 in 2016 because of the annual inflation adjustment that is done to most tax parameters (assuming average 3.5 percent inflation). Therefore, instead of increasing it by 100 percent (double), it is safer to say that he is increasing by around 50 percent. McCain is exaggerating it by almost a factor of two. So in summary, the personal exemption would not be doubled due to McCain's policy. And even if this is passed, a $2,400 exemption increase in 2016 per child for a traditional family of four in the 15 percent bracket (truly middle-income) would only save them $720 in 2016 (assuming two children), which is only about $547 in 2008 dollars (again assuming 3.5 percent inflation). Many Americans who don't understand the difference between an exemption and a credit may have thought they were going to save $3,500 more per child.

McCain also brought up his optional flat tax plan, which is something that nobody analyzing his tax plan has really taken seriously because it will costs a lot in revenue, and they don't want to have that counted against them when debating the fiscal impacts of tax cuts. (In other words, the campaign wants it both ways as Obama adviser Austan Goolsbee once said at an event comparing the two candidates' tax plans: McCain can say one thing on the stump, but tell organizations like the Tax Foundation and Tax Policy Center something else when we score the lost revenue effects of his policies.)

Finally, McCain accused Obama of voting for tax hikes on those making as little as $42,000. That was a non-binding Senate vote earlier this year, and it's different from what Obama is proposing as a candidate. Very few households making $42,000 per year would pay more in taxes under Obama's tax plan. You may say that Obama is voting one way and proposing something else on the campaign trail. If that's fair, then McCain's drastic change of heart on the Bush tax cuts is fair game as well. McCain voted against the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, but now supports extending almost all of them with the exception of the full repeal of the estate tax.

Other Gaffes

Factcheck.org points out some other errors as they relate to fiscal policy:

McCain tripped up on one of his signature issues - special appropriation "earmarks." He said they had "tripled in the last five years," when in fact they have decreased sharply.

Obama mischaracterized an aspect of McCain's health care plan, saying "employers" would be taxed on the value of health benefits provided to workers. Employers wouldn't, but the workers would. McCain also would grant workers up to a $5,000 tax credit per family to cover health insurance.

McCain misrepresented Obama's plan by claiming he'd be "handing the health care system over to the federal government." Obama would expand some government programs but would allow people to keep their current plans or chose from private ones, as well.

Obama to Drop Biden?

Over the past week there have been rumors circulating that Sen. Barack Obama might seek to drop Sen. Joe Biden as running mate and replace him with Sen. Hillary Clinton. Many agree that these are in fact just rumors, and there is little evidence to support that this is a move Obama is actually considering. However, there have been a few events in the past few weeks that have led people to question whether Biden even supports Obama’s agenda.

According to FOXnews.com, “Barack Obama and Joe Biden stepped out of sync again Tuesday, as the Democratic presidential nominee criticized his running mate for voicing opposition to the government bailout of American International Group early last week.

It was the third off-message moment for the Democratic team in two days. Biden had to ratchet back his own rhetoric Monday after an interview aired in which he called one of his own campaign ads “terrible” and said that he did not support clean coal technology – even though Obama is a big proponent.

The lack of harmony suggests the Obama team, for months a rancor-free institution, is running into the kind of message discipline problems that John McCain’s campaign faced before he started to cut back his interaction with reporters.”

Also adding fuel to the fire, Biden was as quoted as saying, "make no mistake about this, Hillary Clinton is as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president of the United States of America. Let's get that straight. She's a truly close personal friend, she is qualified to be president of the United States of America, she's easily qualified to be vice president of the United States of America and quite frankly it might have been a better pick than me. But she's first rate.”

However, when Bill Clinton appeared on “The View” he claimed that Hillary did not want to be Vice President. When NBC'S Today Show's Matt Lauer asked her about what Bill said, Hillary replied, “you know, Matt, there's no point in going back and, you know, talking about something that didn't happen. I want to keep focused on the future and to talk to those people who are worried about their jobs, their home, affording gas and groceries, you know, thinking that the government has just turned its back on them, making them feel almost invisible.”

So does Obama feel his choice was a mistake? And more importantly, will Joe Biden drop out of the race? With the election only six weeks away it does seem rather unlikely, but only time will tell.

Details on Biden’s Tax Returns

Although his Republican counterpart Gov. Sarah Palin has yet to release her tax returns, Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Sen. Joe Biden has published his returns dating back ten years. You can download the PDF version of his returns at Obama’s campaign website.

The returns appear to be pretty straightforward, the Bidens had an annual income of around $200,000 - $300,000, which is about average for a member of the Senate. However, the percent of their income that was deducted for charitable contributions was very low considering the Biden’s income level.

“I wonder, though, if the move might backfire because the returns show that the Bidens have been amazingly tight-fisted when it comes to their charitable giving,” claims Paul L. Caron of the Tax Prof blog. “Despite income ranging from $210,432 - $321,379 over the ten-year period, the Bidens have given only $120 - $995 per year to charity, which amounts to 0.06% - 0.31% of their income.”

“It is jarring that a couple earning over $200,000 per year would give as little as $2 per week to charity. This giving compares very unfavorably to John McCain, whose tax returns show that he gave 27.3% - 28.6% of his income to charity in 2006-2007. During the same period, the Obamas' tax returns show that they gave 5.8% - 6.1% of their income to charity.”

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An Updated Analysis of the 2008 Presidential Candidates' Tax Plans

The Tax Policy Center has updated their analysis of the Presidential candidate’s tax plans. Below is the abstract from their analysis, but you can read the full text, or download the study as a PDF, by visiting their website.

Tax and fiscal policy will loom large in the next president's domestic policy agenda. Nearly all of the tax cuts enacted since 2001 expire at the end of 2010 and the individual alternative minimum tax (AMT) threatens to ensnare tens of millions of Americans. While a permanent fix palatable to both political parties has proven elusive, both candidates have proposed major tax changes. This report describes how we performed our modeling and analysis, outlines the major tax proposals, and discusses the implications of their policies for the revenue raised, taxpayer economic activity, and the distribution of the tax burden.

FactCheck.org Accuses McCain of Multiple Distortions of Obama’s Tax Record

The nonpartisan group FactCheck.org has publicly accused presidential hopeful John McCain of using distorted information to attack Barack Obama’s tax related voting record. Below is the summary of the group’s findings, but you can read the full study at FactCheck.org.

“A TV spot claims Obama once voted for a tax increase ‘on people making just $42,000 a year.’ That's true for a single taxpayer, who would have seen a tax increase of $15 for the year – if the measure had been enacted. But the ad shows a woman with two children, and as a single mother, she would not have been affected unless she made more than $62,150. The increase that Obama once supported as part of a Democratic budget bill is not part of his current tax plan anyway.

A Spanish-language radio ad claims the measure Obama supported would have raised taxes on ‘families’ making $42,000, which is simply false. Even a single mother with one child would have been able to make $58,650 without being affected. A family of four with income up to $90,000 would not have been affected.

The TV ad claims in a graphic that Obama would ‘raise taxes on middle class.’ In fact, Obama's plan promises cuts for middle-income taxpayers and would increase rates only for persons with family incomes above $250,000 or with individual incomes above $200,000.

The radio ad claims Obama would increase taxes ‘on the sale of your home.’ In fact, home-sale profits of up to $500,000 per couple would continue to be exempt from capital gains taxes. Very few sales would see an increase under Obama's proposal to raise the capital gains rate.

A second radio ad, in English, says, ‘Obama has a history of raising taxes’ on middle-class Americans. But that's false. It refers to a vote that did not actually result in a tax increase and could not have done so.”

Obama Says More NATO Troops Means Tax Cuts at Home

Last week, Presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama spoke with CNN on his plan to increase the amount of NATO troops in Afghanistan. He claimed that by getting Europe more involved, they can fight together for a common cause, while also providing valuable tax breaks to middle Americans. Below is a quote from the article, but you can read the full text at CNN.com.

“Barack Obama said Friday that persuading NATO allies to contribute more troops to Afghanistan could lead to U.S. troop cuts and help improve the U.S. economy, with reduced military expenditure being diverted into tax cuts to help middle class families.

‘Part of getting that right is having the Europeans engaged and involved in this same battle that we're involved with,’ the Democratic presidential contender told CNN's Candy Crowley in Berlin, Germany, where he had addressed an estimated crowd of 200,000 a day earlier.

Obama's multi-nation trip, which has included stopovers in Afghanistan, Iraq and Israel, is aimed at bolstering his foreign policy credentials. The one-term senator has been criticized as inexperienced by Republican rival, Sen. John McCain.

Obama landed in France on Friday for a meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy. He ended Friday in the UK where he was scheduled to meet Prime Minister Gordon Brown and opposition leader David Cameron.”

Presidential Tax Views Quiz

Embedded below is an easy quiz that will help you determine which Presidential candidate your tax views align with, Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. John McCain. When you begin the quiz, it will show you a series of tax related statements that you can either agree or disagree with. At the end, the quiz will tell you which candidate your tax views are more aligned with.

How Many Economists Support McCain?

A few days ago the McCain camp announced that they had a document signed by 300 economists that “enthusiastically support” his “Jobs for America” economic plan. The immediate assumption was that McCain has built up a lot of support for his views, but upon further investigation, it appears that may not be the case. According to Politico.com, “it seems a good many of those economists don’t actually support the whole of McCain’s economic agenda. And at least one doesn’t even support McCain for president.

In interviews with more than a dozen of the signatories, Politico found that, far from embracing McCain’s economic plan, many were unfamiliar with — or downright opposed to — key details. While most of those contacted by Politico had warm feelings about McCain, many did not want to associate themselves too closely with his campaign and its policy prescriptions.”

To read the full story head over to Politico.com: In theory, economists support McCain.

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Back on Fox Business News

Yesterday, I was again a guest on Fox Business News’ Money for Breakfast. In case you missed it, I have embedded a video of the segment below. This time I was interviewed by Alexis Glick’s, who even posted this nice entry about me on her own blog. The segment’s topic was McCain vs. Obama Tax Plans, and we discussed both candidate’s personal tax returns, and the tax policies they support. I was happy to be invited to speak on this topic, as I frequently post about the candidates here on my blog. No matter which party you belong to, or who you intend to vote for, I think it is essential in today’s economy to fully understand their tax views.

Sen. John McCain: a Deeper Look at his Tax Views

As the fight for the Democratic nomination continues, the voters decided that Senator John McCain would get the Republican nomination months ago. Although there were a few other conservative candidates, they all dropped out early on in the election cycle. However, other Republicans frequently criticize McCain for being too liberal and not representing the whole party. Who can forget when attention-starved, political author Anne Coulter announced she would vote for Hilary Clinton over John McCain?

This is the third and final entry in my deeper look at the presidential candidate’s tax views. Unlike Clinton and Obama, McCain’s economic views represent the views of conservatives with tax cuts for higher income individuals and no tax increases.

Make Tax Increases More Difficult
One of the most radical tax views of McCain is his desire to make additional tax increases more difficult. He hopes to follow California Republicans in requiring a 3/5 super majority for any tax increases. This will, in effect, give the minority in congress more power and leverage to negotiate trades for important votes. However, in given the current economic uncertainty, such a barrier could have devastating effects. This is especially the case under McCain’s plan to increase our military presence around the world. It will cost the government billions of dollars. But without proper funding, a war cannot continue. Yet, with McCain’s plan it would be difficult to pass tax increases to cover these military expenses.

Alternative Flat Tax System
Although McCain does not support an outright switch to a flat tax, he is making strides towards one. Like any Republican, McCain is not a big fan of our current progressive tax system. His plan is to expand the 15% tax bracket to lower taxes on millions of middle income Americans. Under his plan, the ceiling for the 15% bracket would increase from $43,050 to $70,000 for married couples filing jointly, and from $25,750 to $35,000 for single taxpayers.

The more revolutionary aspect of his plan is the offering of an optional flat tax system. This system would be held out as an alternative to the current progressive system and the myriad of credits, exemptions, deductions, carryover rules, and different tax rates for different forms of income. McCain’s plan would be to tax all taxpayers on all income sources at one single rate. The flat rate would be set at 19% for first two years, 17% thereafter.

McCain’s tax cut plan is estimated to cost the federal government about $240 billion in the next five years, and over $500 in 10 years. However, these are early estimates and with current inflation levels, his plan could cost even more.

When speaking about his plan to fix the tax code, McCain claimed that, "the tax code now requires $140 billion of American families' income to prepare their tax returns." Unfortunately, he greatly overestimated this number. The exact cost attributed to individual taxpayers was only $65 billion, and some estimate the total at a much lower $20 billion. Although McCain's camp said he was drawing his figures from a 2005 report by the President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, the study was not just on families, it included both individual and business taxes

Gas Tax Holiday
The Gas Tax Holiday is one of the few tax proposals that are supported by both McCain and Clinton. As I have mentioned before, this plan is to stop the collection of federal taxes on gasoline and diesel from Memorial Day to Labor Day. Currently the federal government collects an excise tax in the amount of 18.4 cents for gasoline and a 24.4 cents for diesel. Some estimates have cited average savings of $70 per person, but the exact numbers are widely disputed.

Although the phrase “gas tax holiday” sounds good, this holiday is getting a lot of criticism for being nothing more then a campaign gimmick. Within a few days of the announcement 200 of the top economists came forward saying the plan was worthless. Many claim that lower prices would lead to more demand, and only the big oil companies would get anything out of the holiday.

Repeal Alternative Minimum Tax
In addition to lowering taxes on middle income families, McCain also wants to repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), which would basically be a tax cut for the upper middle income taxpayers.

“I believe that we've got to simplify the tax code,” claims McCain. “But one of the first areas we've got to go after is the alternate minimum tax, which is going to eat in to 20 million American families if we don't eliminate it, and very quickly.”

Although the AMT is very unpopular it generates billions of dollars in federal revenue. In addition, remember that the president does not have the power to just remove a tax – only congress does. If McCain wants this tax fully repealed, then he is going to have to strike a deal with congress, and it seems highly unlikely that he would get enough support to make this drastic change.

Extend President Bush Tax Cuts
Although McCain had originally voted against the Bush tax cuts, he now claims to support an extension of the plan. “I voted to extend them because it would have the effect of having a tax increase,” claimed McCain when asked about his flip-flop. “The tax cuts have increased revenues enormously. They've been very beneficial. The problem is that spending has lurched completely out of control. My proposal was to restrain spending. I do not support tax increases. And the effect of not making them permanent would have the effect of a tax increase.”

Unfortunately, changing your view on important issues is suicide for a presidential hopeful. Think back to the 2004 election, and how strongly the Bush campaign pushed the flip-flop label on John Kerry. Voters do not tend to vote for someone they feel will flip on an issue, yet if McCain wants to win the election he is going to need to.

Cut Corporate Tax Rates
Another tax cut McCain supports is cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%. The United States has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world. If we want businesses to stay in this country then we need to keep our tax rates competitive. McCain’s plan does just that.

Revisions to Charitable Contributions
Another controversial component of McCain’s tax plan is his hope to revise the current laws on charitable contributions. Under his plan, taxpayers that give charitable contributions in the form of stock, real estate, bonds, or artwork would not be able to take a tax deduction for the current, inflated value of the gift. Instead, they would only be allowed to take a deduction for the original cost of the asset.

McCain claims this would only affect the richest Americans who take advantage of this loophole to reduce their tax liabilities. However, the plan has been met with loud criticism. The current administration has publicly stated “anything that would take money away from a charity is a step in the wrong direction.”

“Wealthy Americans shouldn’t get a tax write-off for contributing a fancy painting or an overvalued stock,” responded a spokesperson for McCain. “Bush is protecting his wealthy donor base at the expense of the middle class.”

Health Insurance Tax Credit
When it comes to health care, McCain wants to give more responsibility and control to individual patients. His plan would remove current tax breaks given to employers to provide health insurance, and replace it with a $5,000 credit to families who purchase their own health care. He suggests that it would encourage choice and competition in the market, thus lowering current prices. “I’ll work tirelessly to address the problem,” Mr. McCain claimed in a speech at the University of South Florida. “But I won’t create another entitlement program that Washington will let get out of control. I won’t do it. Nor will I saddle states with another unfunded mandate.”

Facts About the Gas Tax Holiday

After discussing the Gas Tax Holiday in my deeper look at Hilary Clinton’s tax views, I wanted to learn more about the proposal. Therefore, earlier today the tax experts of the Roni Deutch Tax Center™ posted an entry to the RDTC Tax Help Blog titled The Facts About A Gas Tax Holiday. Enjoy the snippet below, or check out the full article.

Over the past week, the phrase "gas tax holiday" went from something no one knew about to a phrase being blasted through all media outlets. But what exactly is a gas tax holiday? Is it a new federal holiday that will give us all another three-day weekend? And will a gas tax holiday do anything for our downward spiraling economy?

The phrase "gas tax holiday" refers to a proposal from presidential hopefuls Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain to suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline from Memorial Day to Labor Day. It is a direct result of the eve-rising fuel prices that are expected to surpass $4 per gallon later this summer.

Sen. Hillary Clinton: a Deeper Look at her Tax Views

With only a few primaries left many people are pointing to Sen. Barack Obama as the victor of the Democratic nomination. However, Sen. Hillary Clinton is still committed to finishing the race on the claim that she is more likely to beat Sen. John McCain in the general election, and she does have statistics from national polls to back up her claims. The only hope for Clinton is if the delegates decide to give her the nomination since neither candidate will get the required number of delegates through the election cycle. Nevertheless, since Hillary is still considered one of the candidates for the Democratic nomination, I included her in my in-depth look at the candidate’s tax plans.

Gas Tax Holiday
Clinton’s support of a gas tax holiday has become a key component of her campaign in the remaining primary elections, however it has caused her more negative criticism than positive. At first the idea of a gas tax holiday seems like a good one. People across the nation are complaining about increases in the cost of fueling their vehicles and they want to get relief. By endorsing the gas tax holiday, it seemed like Clinton was making a good campaign move by showing Americans that she understood their hardships and wanted to do something about it.

However, soon it was clear to many that a gas tax holiday was little more then just a good campaign talking point. If enacted, experts agree that the holiday would do little to help the American consumers. Federal excise taxes on gasoline are under 20 cents per gallon, and eliminating the tax would do little to counterbalance the ever-increasing price on fuel. Additionally, by eliminating the tax it would cost the federal government upwards of $125 million that would usually go to federal road repairs and infrastructure improvements.

Finally, there is the problem of supply and demand, which I personally think has been slightly over-exaggerated. The argument is that with lower prices the demand would increase and there would be little benefit to consumers. However, its important to remember that the tax holiday would only apply to American taxpayers, and that the effects on the world market would be negligible.

Let Bush Tax Cuts Expire
Clinton and Obama are on the same page when it comes to President Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts – let them expire. In a democratic debate Clinton took a firm stand on this issue claiming, "I will make it clear that the Bush tax cuts on the upper income, those making more than $250,000 a year, will be allowed to expire."

"I will let the taxes on people making more than $250,000 a year go back to the rates that they were paying in the 1990s," she continued. Hillary has gone to great efforts to promote the fact that she wants to increase taxes on only the wealthiest Americans, not the middle class. However, conservative and "Reagan Democrat" voters often react negatively to any type of tax increase, regardless if it will directly affect their paychecks. If Hillary does win the nomination, she will need to really drive home the fact that the increase will not affect middle to higher middle income Americans.

Extend Low Income Tax Credits
Although Clinton does not favor as much lower income credits as Obama, she still does support extending additional credits targeting people living on low wages. One of the tax credits Clinton supports is extending the Child Tax Credit to cover the first year of a child’s life. Clinton aims to make it easier for parents to stay home and care for newborn children. "Our tax policies do not reflect the cost of raising children," claims Clinton. "We should expand the child tax credit for the first year of a child's life to help parents stay home and give lower-income parents who receive government support for child care the option to sue the subsidies to cover the costs of staying home and caring for their own children." Clinton’s plan to increase low income tax credits may sound nice, but without reducing their overall tax burdens, small credits can only do so much to help someone get out of poverty.

Strengthening the Middle Class
The biggest part of Hillary’s tax proposal is to help strengthen the middle class. "I am absolutely committed to not raising a single tax on middle class Americans," claimed Clinton. "In fact, I have a very specific plan of $100 billion in tax cuts. My priorities are middle-class tax cuts and support for the middle class, to make college affordable, retirement security possible, health insurance affordable."

The phrase "strengthen the middle class" is a great campaign move on Clinton’s behalf as studies show that people like to consider themselves middle class regardless of their actual income. Both the phrases lower class, and upper class have negative connotations so targeting the "middle class" has helped Hillary appeal to the general public. However, the government needs to make money somehow, and Clinton cannot expect to only raise taxes on the highest income individuals. The public does not generally favor unbalanced tax increases, and it will be difficult for Clinton to drastically increase taxes on the wealthiest while lowering taxes for everyone else.

Revise AMT & Index to Inflation
Although Clinton previously voted against reducing the AMT (alternative minimum tax) in the Senate, she now appears to support some revisions to the highly unpopular tax. "I'll tell you something that we are going to have to deal with, the alternative minimum tax, which falls heavily on a lot of you and your families," claimed Clinton at the 2007 IAFF Presidential Forum. "You know, for six years I've been saying, with all due respect, do the billionaires in America need more tax cuts? Don't you think we ought to cut the taxes of middle income people, in particular those who are going to be hit by the alternative minimum tax?"

As the AMT impacts more and more families the tax is being considered widely unpopular, and is something that all the candidates are striving to fix. However, along with Clinton’s overall plan to strengthen the middle class, you have to wonder where all this extra money is coming from? All the tax cuts and credits would cost the government billions of dollars in lost revenue, and I am doubtful it could all be made up for with taxes on the rich.

Affordable College Education
At the heart of her plan to strengthen the middle class is Hillary’s tax cuts designed to make college more affordable for everyone. "When it comes to higher education – we shouldn’t be playing catch-up with the world – we should be leading it," claimed Clinton in a press release about her plan. "I believe that college shouldn’t just be a privilege for the wealthy – but an opportunity for anyone with the talent, determination and ambition to learn. And I believe that every American should have access to lifelong learning opportunities – from apprenticeships, to community college, to the most select four-year institutions."

Hillary’s college plan would basically boil down to a $3,500 credit which she claims is enough to cover more than 50% of the cost of tuition at the average public institution. But with rising community college prices, and ten thousand dollar per semester bills at many universities, I wonder how big of an impact this credit will actually have?

Small Capital Gain Increase
Although Clinton has not gave an official yes or no on increasing the Capital Gain tax rate, she has noted that if she did increase the rate it wouldn’t be by much. "I wouldn't raise it above the 20% if I raised it at all," notes Clinton. Although a small increase would not generate as much revenue as Obama’s plan to nearly double the tax rate, it seems much more "doable." The increase would still generate billions of dollars in new revenue but would not have a massive impact on Americans who invest.

Economic Military Changes
Although her military and security plans do not have a direct impact on the taxes paid by Americans, it will have an impact on the country’s budget that will trickle down to taxpayers. Included in Clinton’s proposal are a few costly measures, including: redeployment of troops in Iraq, increased commitment to Afghanistan and Pakistan, increased military research budgets, and a pay raise for wartime troops.

Sen. Barack Obama: a Deeper Look at his Tax Views

As we get closer to the general election, the candidates’ tax views are becoming major components of their respective campaigns. In the beginning of the primary election, no one was talking taxes. But because of my love of taxes, I frequently blogged about the candidates’ tax positions. Now, with the current economic state (i.e. mortgage crisis, ever-increasing gas prices, etc.), people are thinking about taxes.

With only three major candidates left in the election cycle, I figured it would be timely to take a more detailed look at each candidate’s individual tax views. In this first entry, I review Senator Barack Obama's tax plan, as well as some of his other proposals that will likely have tax consequences or an economic impact on the country.

Higher Taxes on Top Earning Americans
Senator Obama is a big believer in our progressive tax system – and he is not afraid to hide that. So one of the first things Obama is set to do is letting President Bush’s 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to selectively expire. "There's no doubt that the tax system has been skewed. And the Bush tax cuts – people didn't need them, they weren't even asking for them," claimed Senator Obama during a debate. By "selectively expire", Obama endorses extending those tax cuts on the rates for all but the top two income tax brackets.

In addition to letting the Bush tax cuts expire, Obama also advocates increasing the income cap on payroll taxes. This would essentially be a huge tax increase for taxpayers earning between $97,000.00 and $250,000.00, which goes against Obama’s prior commitment to not raise taxes on individuals making less than $250,000.00. Although higher taxes on the rich is a popular thought for many liberals, you cannot expect to only tax the rich and cut taxes for the poor. The American public is not likely to support unbalanced tax increases and this could harm his chances in the general election.

Close Corporate Loop-Holes
Another major component of Obama’s tax plan is to close hundreds of corporate "loop-holes" that allow massive corporations to questionably reduce their tax liability. "Instead of having all of us pay our fair share, we've got over $1 trillion worth of loopholes in the corporate tax code," he claimed. "This isn't the invisible hand of the market at work. It's the successful work of special interests." This plan would be highly efficient at creating new revenue for the federal government, but at what cost? Huge corporations are already moving factories and offices to countries with cheaper labor and more favorable corporate taxes. If the tax rates increase too much, then more corporations would likely move out of the country and it could result in thousands of lost jobs.

Senior Citizen Tax Breaks
Although it seems like an attempt to get the attention of the "senior voters" and the AARP, Obama is hoping to provide relief to millions of seniors struggling to make ends meet. His plan would eliminate federal taxes on seniors making less then $50,000.00 per year, which would account for $7 million dollars in total relief. It seems quite unlikely that the country would get behind this tax plan. I also have my own reservations – what about single mothers making less than $50,000 per year – that I expressed in a previous entry.

Make Work Pay Tax Credit
With his Make Work Pay tax credit, Obama is hoping to encourage Americans to take control of their lives, while providing tax relief to both low and middle income taxes. "I'd reward work by providing an income tax cut of up to $500 per person – or $1,000 for each working family – to offset the payroll tax that they're already paying," claimed Obama. "Because this credit would be greater than their income tax bill, my proposal would effectively eliminate all income taxes for 10 million working Americans."

Capital Gain Tax Increase
Obama’s desire to increase the Capital Gains rate is probably the biggest actual increase of his tax plan. The current tax rate on Capital Gains is 15%, and Obama hopes to raise it to 28%
"At a time when Americans are working harder than ever, we are taxing income from work at nearly twice the level that we're taxing gains for investors," Obama said. "We've lost the balance between work and wealth."

Although the Capital Gains tax rate is much lower today than it was a decade ago, it is being levied on a lot more people. Investing is not only for the rich, as there are millions of middle income Americans investing in stocks, retirement accounts, and mutual funds. In a time of a looming economic recession, we should be encouraging sound investment and savings strategies. Raising the capital gains rate is not going to do that.

Mortgage Relief for Homeowners
"Ten of the country's largest mortgage lenders spent $185 million lobbying Washington so they could keep engaging in destructive practices," claimed Obama. "And they got what they paid for. To help fix this problem Obama wants to create more accountability in the mortgage industry. In addition, he intends to pursue more tax breaks for current homeowners. Specifically, Obama announced intentions to "create a 10 percent universal mortgage credit to provide homeowners who do not itemize tax relief."

Because it is a credit, individuals claiming the standard deduction would have access to it. Currently, mortgage interest is a deduction that can only be claimed by itemizing your deductions on your tax return. The credit would provide about $500 to 10 million homeowners in this country, mainly for individuals making less than $50,000 per year.

IRS & Tax Return Reform
One of the most interesting things about Obama’s tax proposal is his idea of reforming the IRS and the way American’s file their tax returns. The good thing about his suggestion is that it is a smaller form of revamping the IRS – unlike other candidates who want to dissolve the IRS completely. Obama claims that his simplified tax code would allow anyone with a bank account to complete their taxes in minutes – as long as they take the standard deduction. Part of his plan includes using pre-filled tax forms. "There's no reason the IRS can't send Americans pre-filled tax forms to verify," Obama said. "This means no more worry. No more wasted time. No more extra expenses for a tax preparer."

Although more realistic than completely dissolving the IRS, Obama’s plan is still fraught with problems. While in a perfect world, the IRS could send pre-filled tax returns and people could easily file their returns. However, we do not live in a perfect world. Implementing a plan to simplify tax returns could create large problems for the IRS. They already have enough trouble tracking down taxpayers, let alone sending them accurate pre-filled income tax returns. Additionally, this program would open the floodgates for large-scale identity theft problems. The information contained in a taxpayers return is highly sensitive and everyone knows that standard mail is not exactly 100% secure.

Revamp the AMT
Although Obama voted "nay" on repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT), he does support a revamp of the tax. The specific details of his plan are a bit hazy, but Obama has claimed he would like to index the tax according to inflation so that it does not affect middle-income Americans. However, with dozens of social plans that cost billions of dollars to operate, the idea of reducing a tax that generates so much revenue for the government seems unlikely.

American Opportunity Tax Credit
One of Obama’s more popular tax views is to help make higher education more affordable for Americans by creating a credit to reimburse taxpayers for the costs of obtaining a college education. According to his plan, the credit would reimburse taxpayers on the first $4,000.00 they spend on a college education, and will cover two-thirds of the cost of attending a public college or university.

Immigration Reform and Undocumented Immigrant Taxes
Obama wants to reform the way the federal government deals with undocumented immigrants. Obama’s plan does have tax consequences, as it would not only require illegal aliens to file tax returns and pay income taxes, but would also require them to pay back taxes and the associated penalties and interest. If this idea became reality, it could account for millions of dollars in additional federal revenue. And, by not including tax amnesty in his immigration reform, Obama preemptively "plucks" a feather from the anti-immigration reform movement. It also preemptively stops American citizens from lobbying for similar treatment for their own unfiled tax returns and IRS back taxes.

Increased Foreign Aid
Although not included in his tax plan, Obama does support a healthy increase for money the federal government provides in foreign relief. He has proposed a comprehensive African HIV / AIDS strategy that will provide $50 billion in relief by 2013, and a global poverty fighting strategy that will provide between $25 and $50 billion in relief by 2012. The source of these funds is still unclear, however we can assume the money will come from some of Obama’s tax increases on the wealthy.

Clinton, Obama, & McCain: The Good, Bad, & Ugly Candidate Tax Views

As the primary elections continue across the United States, I am keeping to my commitment to getting the candidate’s tax views more attention. So much attention is being placed on superficial topics that taxes are taking a back seat. Taxes and the economy will probably become a popular topic in the general election, but I strongly encourage every one to think taxes now! Read up on the candidate’s respective websites, and check out neutral information sources like SmartVoter.org.

At this point in the game there are only three major candidates left in the race. Each have quite different tax views. Below are the good, bad, and ugly tax views of each major remaining candidate.

Hilary Clinton

The Good

Let Bush’s Tax Cuts Expire

Ms. Clinton adamantly claims that the middle class has been ignored by the current administration and seeks to strengthen and grow the middle class and restore the basic bargain: "if you work hard and do your part, you can build a better life for yourself and your family." One method of doing so would be to let the Bush tax cuts expire. This may be a controversial view, but most liberals will agree that it’s essential for the improvement of the American economy. These tax cuts only go to the extremely wealthy individuals in the country and do nothing for the hard working American class. Although some argue that cutting taxes for the rich stimulates the economy, since these tax cuts were enacted the national debt has only increased. Most Americans are quick to judge any tax increase because no one likes paying more in taxes. However, I doubt any one reading this blog would be affected, as letting Bush’s tax cuts expire would only raise taxes on the super rich.

The Bad

Maintain Current Social Security Cap

Clinton supports retaining the current income cap on the Social Security tax, which is a good idea. Currently income over $102,000 is not subject to taxation from the social security tax. Therefore the top income earners do not pay the social security tax on their full income. Increasing the limit on the social security cap, or removing it all together, would create millions of dollars in additional federal revenue.

The Ugly

Mandatory Health Insurance

With heath care issues on the top of every one’s mind Clinton recently proposed the "American Health Choice Plan" which revolves around an individual mandate requiring everyone to have health insurance. Her plan would give more choices to taxpayers seeking health insurance without quite making it universally available through he federal government. Clinton claims her program would cost about $110 billion per year, but has not yet given any specific information on how the plan would be funded. The concept is not so bad on it’s own, but the lack of funding information makes this an ugly tax view.

Barack Obama

The Good

Tax Wealth More Than Regular Wages

One of the tax cuts enacted by President Bush was to drop the tax rate on capital gains from 20% to 15%. This was another tax break that specifically targets the wealthiest in this country who do not earn wages, but rather live off of investments and accumulated wealth. There’s no reason that capital gains should be taxed so much less then regular wages, and Obama agrees. By raising the tax back to 20% some studies estimate that an additional $100 billion in revenue could be generated for the federal government.

The Bad

New Tax Credits

Obama's tax plan features a prominent "Making Work Pay" credit that would offset federal taxes on the first $8,100 of a taxpayers earnings. It would essentially generate a credit of up to $500 for single persons or $1,000 per family. According to Obama this credit would eliminate income taxes for at least 10 million low-income Americans. The idea of lowering taxes for low paid working Americans is considered great by many liberals, but there isn’t really a need for a new credit to accomplish this. Instead, why not expand the Earned Income Tax Credit or the standard deduction amount rather than trying to get a new credit passed by codgers.

The Ugly

No Taxes For Senior Citizens

One of Obama’s tax proposals is to eliminate all federal taxes imposed on senior citizens making under $50,000 per years and not requiring them to file tax returns. This may be a good way to get the senior vote, but it’s much more complicated than it seems. First of all, senior citizens often have income from multiple sources including capital gains, dividends, Social Security, retirement plans, etc. Determining their exact income would still require the same effort as filing a tax return. Additionally, this plan gives special tax treatment to a group if individuals based solely on their age, which seems like borderline age discrimination. Why should a struggling single mother have to pay taxes on her $49,999.00 income when a retired grandmother would pay noting on the same income amount?

John McCain

The Good

Investment Tax Cuts

McCain is a strong supporter of lowering taxes to encourage economic growth, which is the dominant economic stance of the Republican party. Not only does he support renewing the Bush tax cuts, but he also favors numerous tax cuts. McCain hopes to reduce taxes on Capital Gains, Interest, Dividend, Investment income, and even corporate tax rates. And as if his tax cuts weren’t enough, McCain also supports a new rule that would require a 3/5-majority vote to raise taxes. In summary, McCain is a strong supporter of permanent tax cuts, and the Republicans love him for it.

The Bad

Continued War Funding

McCain is a strong supporter of the American military and the "War on Terror," with promises of a continued military presence in Iraq. According to his website, he believes that the answer to our current national security problems is to not "roll back our overseas commitments," but to increase the size of our Army and Marine Corps and continue the current War on Terror. McCain has recognize there is a problem with current military spending but has not provided any information on how to continue the military efforts while lowering the current $12 billion-per-month budget.

The Ugly

No Pledge Against Taxes

Although liberals typically support raising taxes to stimulate the economy, this view is very unpopular among republicans. McCain is one of the only republicans who ran for president this year who declined to sign the pledge put forth by Americans for Tax Freedom not to impose any new taxes or increase existing taxes. The conservative wing of the Republican Party are almost always against increasing taxes and this lack of a commitment could hurt his chances of winning the presidency.

Clinton Unveils $70 Billion Emergency Spending Plan

As we get closer and closer to the general election, economic issues are beginning to get attention. Earlier today presidential hopeful Hilary Clinton unveiled a new $70 billion emergency spending package designed to help those affected by the U.S. housing crisis and to help counteract an upcoming recession.

“Economists and politicians are finally waking up to what many of America's families already know: that we might be sliding into a recession," claims Clinton. "We need an immediate strategy to get our economy back on track. I would work with leaders from both parties to pass an aggressive, fast-acting stimulus package to create good new jobs and revitalize our economy."

According to Reuters, “Clinton's plan would provide $30 billion for an emergency housing crisis fund for states to help low-income families unable to make mortgage payments; $25 billion to help low-income families pay their heating bills; $10 billion to extend unemployment insurance for people unable to find jobs; and $5 billion for alternative energy programs.”

Open Request to Presidential Candidates

The upcoming presidential election is one of the most talked about in recent history. However, tax and economic views are a major topic that nearly none of the candidates seem to be addressing. As we move into the general election, the economy will likely get more attention. However, I think it is important to talk taxes now!

As such, I have posted numerous blog entries on the candidate’s tax views on both my personal blog, and the RDTC Tax Help blog. Some of the entries include: Tax Views of Top 10 Presidential Candidates, Where the Candidates Stand On the Issues, and Huckabee’s Tax Plan: The Achilles Heel of his Campaign.

In continuing with my effort to bring attention to the candidate’s tax views, I am putting out an open request to all the presidential hopefuls to talk more about taxes. Additionally, I would love the opportunity to speak with any of the candidates about their views. Either through e-mail, telephone, or even in person. I encourage any of the candidates to contact me as soon as possible to give more detailed information to the readers of my blog.